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Unlike sleepers who you’ll
usually find in the later draft rounds busts are top ranked players who are
unlikely to live up to the expectations. They are just as tough to predict as
sleepers, if not tougher. Those players can destroy your dreams of victory as
you expect a high return on your precious investment. How many managers drafted
Jacoby Ellsbury early last season when they could have drafted Carlos Gonzalez
many rounds later instead?
Here is my attempt to predict the
busts for 2011 in no particular order. Bear in mind that busts are by no means
bad players. In fact they are still near the top of their class. It just means
that they are higher valued than what their actual production will be.
SS Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers
Some might be tempted to draft
Andrus early due to the lack of good shortstops and his ability to steal bases.
But really, he does not produce anything but stolen bases. He won’t bat .270,
can’t even hit home runs at Rangers Ballpark and, if Ian Kinsler becomes the
leadoff hitter, will see a decrease in stolen bases. If you’ve come this far
and still need stolen bases go for B.J. Upton (TB).
3B Dan Uggla, Atlanta Braves
I’m not saying 2010 was a fluke
but I would not be surprised if it remained his best career season for as long
as he’ll play. Don’t bank your money on 30 home runs and 100/100 runs and RBI.
He’s also weak against LHP. Are you prepared to bench your 4th or 5th
pick from time to time?
SP Brett Myers, Houston Astros
The former Phillie had an
outstanding year with the Houston Astros last season. He had a career best 3.14
ERA and 14 wins. But let’s be realistic, that’s not going to happen again. 10
wins and an ERA in the low 4s are more likely in 2011. Is this worth a pick in
the first 10 rounds? I think not.
OF Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies
Carlos Gonzalez was one of the
best fantasy players last year and the saviour of many manager’s seasons, mine
included. It will be tough to repeat last season’s numbers: .336 batting
average, 34 home runs, 111 runs, 117 RBI and 26 stolen bases. This guy is young
and may already have had his career best season. He will be valuable to
whichever teams he’s going to be on, just not as a 1st rounder let
alone top 5 pick.
SS Derek Jeter, New York Yankees
After Hanley Ramirez (FLA), Troy
Tulowitzki (COL) and Jose Reyes (NYM) there’s a huge gap before we get to the
next best shortstop. Many will be tempted to draft Jeter early, partly based on
what he’s done in previous years and partly because of who he is. Jeter is
clearly on his way down. He may not
even be leadoff hitter this season as the Yankees are considering Brett Gardner
in this spot. The veteran will not bat .300, not have 90 runs nor will he have
70 RBI. Derek Jeter does not justify a 5th or 6th round
pick.
2B Robinson Cano, New York Yankees
Cano did falter towards the end
of last season. The second baseman tends to go through bad spells from time to
time. Can he bat over .300 again? Can he hit 20+ homers and 90/90 runs/RBI? He
is probably the best second baseman in the league but I feel hard pressed to
sacrifice my 1st round pick on him.
C Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants
The catcher had an amazing rookie
season and helped the San Francisco Giants to win the World Series. But let’s face
it, his numbers were just too good to be true. He doesn’t have as much power as
his .505 SLG may suggest and he can’t hit at AT&T Park. He won’t surpass
the .300 BA barrier or hit 20 dingers. Mind you, you won’t even get 70/70
runs/RBI from him. Don’t get me wrong, this guy has so much talent that only
the sky is the limit, but do you really wish to obtain his talents at the
expense of a 4th round pick?
OF Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners
This guy can still bat and steal
bases. At 37 he may however finish an MLB season for the first time with a
batting average below .300. The amount of stolen bases may go down from the 40s
into the 30s as well. The biggest problem is though, who in the Mariners lineup
is going to bat him in?
Source: http://nybblogs.com | 