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The
fantasy baseball season is still young but never before have I seen so many
trades going on in my leagues. There could be many reasons for this. A draft
that left you with weak spots at certain positions or maybe you are testing
your opponents and check if you can outwit them with an unbalanced trade to
name a couple.
I
am not a good trade partner as I seldom accept a trade unless it’s obviously to
my advantage. I almost never trade in the first month, as it’s still too early
to tell what kind of a season a player will have. As a rule I’d like a batter
to have 100 at bats or a starter to pitch 4 or 5 games before I acknowledge a
player could have a break out season or face a tough ride.
I
have already accepted one trade, which looked favourable on paper but hasn’t
panned out that way yet, when I gave away 2B Brandon Phillips (a 4th
round pick) for SS Jose Reyes (a 3rd round pick).
Shortly
afterwards I received another trade offer in another league that was worth
having a closer look at. Someone offered OF Carl Crawford and SS Rafael Furcal
for SS Hanley Ramirez. It looks like a fair deal does it not? Crawford is a low
end 1st round pick and Rafael Furcal is a decent player, whom you
may have drafted in the 10th to 12th round, for a top pick.
But there’s a little more to be considered. If I accept this trade Furcal would
replace Hanley Ramirez at shortstop and Crawford would start in outfield moving
B.J. Upton to the bench. That’s right, B.J. Upton has to be factored in.
Now,
how to determine whether it’s a good trade? At this stage of the season I am
using my season projections for every player.
For the participating parties this means:
Hanley
Ramirez: 112 runs, 24 HR, 77 RBI, 39 stolen bases, .313 batting average
B.
J. Upton: 80 runs, 13 HR, 60 RBI, 37 stolen bases, .259 batting average
Carl
Crawford: 91 runs, 14 HR, 74 RBI, 48 stolen bases, .301 batting average
Rafael
Furcal: 78 runs, 8 HR, 43 RBI, 20 stolen bases, .299 batting average.
Based
on these projections I would trade away 192 runs, 37 HR, 137 RBI, 76 stolen
bases and a .286 batting average for 169 runs, 22 HR, 117 RBI, 68 stolen bases
and a .300 batting average. In terms of categories this trade is 4-1 in my
opponent’s favour. This is reason for me to decline the trade.
As mentioned before, this is how I evaluate trades
this early in the season. As the season progresses other factors play a role.
Tactics become more relevant as you might need a surge in certain categories
and calculating what pace the players are on for becomes more important.
Source: http://nybblogs.com | 
